Russia's war plan and the price of oil

Filed under: Bad News, Russia, Venezuela, Politics, Oil

Economists think they have most of the data they need to forecast the price of oil: The dollar is rising; consumption in the US is falling; production out of OPEC is steady; the drop in crude has driven many speculators out of the game; unrest is receding in Nigeria and Venezuela; huge deposits have been found off Brazil; the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico has not disrupted production.

War is harder to predict, but there it is in Georgia. Russia seems intent on destroying the military of its small neighbor state. The U.S. is pushing to keep Russia from escalating the conflict, which is driving extreme tension between Russia and NATO. Russia is an important supplier of crude, and it could decide to use that as leverage to keep the West out of the dust up.

There is some speculation that the Russian government would like to cripple other countries that share it borders to build a geographic "buffer" to its south. NATO may be forced to step in because some of these countries are close to its members' territories.

War is hard to predict and the oil market does not like the unpredictable. Oil prices are about to rise and could get much higher.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Russia's war plan and the price of oil originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 11 Aug 2008 08:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.