Talk of $200 oil picks up steam

Filed under: Venezuela, Economic Data, Oil, Recession

Now and then, a media outlet or analyst will talk about $200 crude. Most analysis shows oil peaking at $160 or so and dropping back over the next few months. The commodity may never trade at $60 again, but most of its rise may be over.

Unfortunately, the picture of the energy world seems to be changing. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Oil's historic ascent from $100 to nearly $150 a barrel in just six months is lending weight to a far grimmer prediction: Crude could reach $200 a barrel by the end of the year." The paper adds that this could mean gas would rise to $6 a gallon.

Oil may actually go higher especially if demand in China and India continues to rise and oil producing countries, including Venezuela and Nigeria, stay politically unstable.

What is truly frightening is what $200 oil would do to the U.S. economy. It would almost certainly send companies in the automotive and airline sectors into Chapter 11. Some consumers could see the cost of gas and heating their homes become as high as 20% to 25% of their total cost of living. That would destroy current retail spending habits.

But the economic effect would be more widespread than the airline and car sectors. Every industry that has to ship large amounts of its products, from newspapers to food processors, would be faced with nearly unimaginable additions to their costs of doing business.

All of that would send the US economy into a long and very deep recession. If nothing is done about oil prices soon, the odds of tremendous trouble go way, way up.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Talk of $200 oil picks up steam originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.